Territorial dispute is a common and persistent source of conflict among states. Although other issues can spark disputes between states – such as nuclear proliferation, regime type, the treatment of ethnic groups, or foreign imposed regime change – the most frequent causes of violent conflict between states revolve around territorial claims. Generally speaking, scholars consider two states to be “in a territorial dispute” if one of them has threatened or displayed force, or initiated an armed conflict with the other over territory. Yet this definition of a territorial dispute can be operationalized in multiple ways, and some states may disagree about territory without militarizing it or initiating a war.
Even so, the scholarly literature has consistently found that territorial issues are the most likely to lead to violent conflict. Most studies leverage CoW-MID data to examine variations in conflict severity and find that MIDs over territory are more severe than other types of conflicts.
In a recent article, Paul Huth offers an alternative view of the nature of territorial disputes and their potential for escalation to war. He finds that geography is not the main reason why some territories are more likely to be disputed than others, nor does it explain why disputes that take place in a given geographical space tend to recur. Instead, domestic concerns, particularly the ethnic and linguistic ties between the challenger’s population and those living in the territory at issue, are strongly associated with the likelihood that territorial disputes will become militarized rivalries.
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